omorrow, Ghanaians will vote in a crucial election. The country will
elect 275 parliamentarians and the President of the Republic of Ghana.
There are seven presidential candidates in the race, but it is going to
be a straight fight between President John Dramani Mahama of the
National Democratic Congress (NDC) and Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of
the New Patriotic Party (NPP). Dr. Papa Kwesi Nduom of the Progressive
People’s Party (PPP) has been tipped to push the contest into a second
round, but I don’t think so. It’s likely to be a one-touch victory for
either the NDC or NPP.
Below are nine main factors, which, in my
opinion, will determine who wins in tomorrow’s election. This is a
qualitative analysis, and it is my opinion.
1. Incumbency advantage
This
has been an important factor that helps the governing party in Ghanaian
elections. The governing party has money to spend. Yes, a lot of cash
to splash around. This year, the NDC has the incumbency advantage, the
spending power. The NDC’s billboards have dwarfed those of its
opponents. The party, apart from almost monopolizing the advertising
space in the media, also bought slots on prime-time media programmes to
propagate its message. Apart from doling out cash and other goodies to
buy votes (which the smaller parties also do in small quantities), the
governing NDC also uses state-funded initiatives such as outboard motors
for fishermen to canvass for votes. Some people vote based on what they
get from the politicians.
President Mahama, especially in his
last days of the campaign, was able to visit many areas to campaign
because he flew in state-owned helicopters. The incumbent party also
controls the police and other security forces. In a country where
agencies of the state owe allegiance to the governing party instead of
the state, the “system” works in favour of the governing party. The NDC,
therefore, has the incumbency advantage in this advantage.
2. Incumbency curse
People
often talk about incumbency advantage, but they forget that there is an
incumbency curse. The general hardships in the country are not blamed
on the opposition. When there is no water, it is the incumbent party
that suffers. Unemployment, power crises and any other form of
disaffection or frustration in the country have a way of affecting the
governing party. The NDC will suffer incumbency curse and the NPP will
gain from this.
3. Infrastructure
The
governing NDC has built its campaign around infrastructure. I wrote a
few weeks ago that borrowing money to build infrastructure is something
any idiot can do. Anybody can borrow, build and brag. It is not a
novelty, but not all voters are sophisticated enough to see governance
beyond the building of infrastructure. For some people, development is
what they can see or touch. For some of the rural folks, they cannot be
blamed. To the farmer in a village near Damongo who wants to transport
his farm produce to Tamale or Accra, he cares very little about the
exchange rate. Their major concern is the road so if you fix it, they
need nothing more. Infrastructure will play an important role in this
election. The NDC will benefit from this.
4. Corruption
Corruption
is the biggest sin of this government. Almost all the campaign messages
against the government have an accusation of corruption. The GYEEDA,
SADA, SUBAH, Woyome, Bus Branding, Ford Gift Saga and other scandals
have dented the reputation of the NDC and their candidate. Ghanaians are
generally very tolerant of corruption but corruption will influence the
voting decision of some people in this election, especially the middle
and the upper classes in the society.
Nana Addo Dankwa
Akufo-Addo, on the other hand, has been perceived as incorruptible. He
is one of the most vilified politicians in this country. Even though
allegations of all sorts thrown at him seem to stick with ease, his
opponents do not add corruption to his sins. Contrasting this with his
main opponent who has presided over a corruption-friendly government,
the corruption factor will favour Akufo-Addo.
5. Candidate’s appeal
Some
people vote based on the appeal of the candidate. The demeanour of the
candidates determines how some people vote. President Mahama has a
youthful appeal. It is not in vain when he does the Usain Bolt sign and
other youthful antics. He appeals more to the “boys boys” and “girls
girls” than Nana Akufo-Addo, who looks very serious. While President
Mahama tweets and facebooks, Akufo-Addo recently said in a radio
interview that he does not send emails. For this reason, President
Mahama has an edge over Akufo-Addo in this regard, even though that
appeal has waned since 2012 when Mr. Mahama first appeared on the
Presidential ballot paper with “edey bii keke”.
President Mahama
has also been projected as a humble man while Nana Akufo-Addo is said to
be arrogant. Ghanaians are generally timid. And timidity is sometimes
mistaken for humility and elevated above cardinal values such as honesty
and trustworthiness in the selection of our leaders. A charge of
arrogance can hurt the fortunes of a candidate even if those leveling
the accusation cannot prove it. In terms of personal appeal, President
Mahama seems to have an edge over Nana Akufo-Addo and those who vote on
this factor will choose President Mahama over Akufo-Addo.
6. Fallout from Election 2012
In
the 2012 election, President Mahama won with a slim margin. He had
50.7% of the total valid votes cast. He had 325,863 more votes than Nana
Akufo-Addo. In the history of Ghana’s elections in the Fourth Republic,
any candidate who won and sought re-election often dropped in his
performances. If this trend is anything to go by, President Mahama’s
percentage is likely to drop in 2016.
If someone voted for
President Mahama in 2012, he or she may have more reasons not to vote
for him in 2016 than those who voted for Nana Akufo-Addo in 2012. In
2012, President was not in charge for a long time. When he took over
after President Mills’ death, he was the “darling boy” of many voters.
President Mills’ death united the party behind him and won the party
the sympathy of some floating voters.
In 2016, however, he has
four years of not-so-impressive governance behind him as president. Not
all who voted for him in 2012 may be happy with his handling of the
economy, corruption, employment, power, etc. But because Akufo-Addo has
not been in charge of these things, someone who voted for him in 2012
may not have a strong reason not to vote for him again. If all factors
remain constant, the gap between the two will close because Mahama is
likely to lose voters. These are people who may have voted for him in
2012. Those people may either not vote or they will vote for Akufo-Addo.
So Akufo-Addo is likely to have the net gain in the fallout from
election 2012.
There will be first-time voters, but looking at
the general economic outlook and high level of unemployment the new
voters (who are mostly the youth) will either shift towards the NPP or
the two parties will share the spoils.
7. Ethnicity
Both
the NDC and NPP have strong supports among some ethnic groups. The NPP
enjoys enormous support among the Asante and Akyem, and some Akan ethnic
groups while the NDC enjoys enormous support among the Ewes in the
Volta Region and a majority of the ethnic groups in the three regions of
the north. It is difficult to say who has the edge here. If either
party suffers voters’ apathy in its stronghold, the opponent will
greatly benefit.
As it stands, the NPP is likely to improve on
its performance in the three regions of the North. This will be mainly
credited to the Bawumia factor and the fact that some people in that
part of the country are not happy with the performance of the president
in the handling of the Savannah Accelerated Development Authority
(SADA). When President Mahama first contested in 2012, a lot of people
up north said, it was time for their “own brother” to be in charge. But
it seems a number of them are disappointed in their brother. It is not
clear how the NDC will fare in the Volta Region, but the party’s
fortunes in the north are likely to reduce even though it will still win
in that part of the country. The NDC is also targeting one million
votes in the Ashanti Region, but it is difficult to say how close the
party can get to that target, but from the northern Ghana situation the
NDC is likely to have a deficit in the balance sheet of ethnic
politics. This is likely to favour the NPP.
8. The running mate factor
The
NPP’s flag bearer Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia appears to have more weight than
the NDC’s Kwesi Bekoe Amissah-Arthur. They are both economists but Dr.
Bawumia expertise has shaped this campaign to a large extent.
His lecture on the economy brought the campaign back on track when it
was reduced to trivialities. He adds value to the Akufo-Addo brand and
the NPP has featured him in their campaign commercials. His wife,
Samira, is arguably the discovery of the 2016 campaign. Nana
Akufo-Addo’s running mate adds a lot of weight to the ticket and appeals
to the middle and upper classes. The NDC’s Amissah-Arthur, on the other
hand, does not add much weight to the ticket of President Mahama so the
NPP has an edge over the NDC as far as the running mate factor is
concerned.
9. The middle class/floating voters
A
majority of voters in Ghana have their votes on autopilot, as Pastor
Mensa Otabil puts it. They vote for ethnic and regional reasons. Both
the NDC and NPP may have 45% of these votes before they start
campaigning. There are also people who vote based on prevailing
conditions. These people are not part of the two extremes.
Infrastructure and vain promises do not inform their voting decisions.
They are the middle and upper-class people. Call them the elite. They
are in the minority but they have a say in who wins. The NPP does better
in elite constituencies and on university campuses than the NDC. And in
this election, the decision of the middle and upper class as well as
university graduates who are yet to get jobs is likely to favour the
NPP.
Conclusion
From the above analysis,
the odds favour the NPP. But the NDC has campaigned very hard in the
run-up to the election. The virtual control of the airwaves and the
splashing of government projects will sway people. This makes it an open
race. But the NPP has more reasons to win this election than the NDC.
The
writer, Manasseh Azure Awuni, is a senior broadcast journalist with Joy
99.7 FM. His email address is azureachebe2@yahoo.com. The views
expressed in this article are his personal opinions and do not reflect,
in any form or shape, those of The Multimedia Group, where he works.
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